Long-Term Expected Returns

Update 2026

With Sophie de La Chapelle, Global Head of Strategic Asset Allocation Advisory and Guy Ertz, Deputy Global CIO, BNP Paribas Wealth Management

Guy Ertz, Deputy Global Chief Investment Officer, presents his report with a contextualised update of long-term expected returns for each asset class.

Every year we update our long-term capital market assumptions. Specifically, this includes our expectations for the long-term returns of major asset classes, along with our assumptions for volatility (the magnitude of price fluctuations) and correlations.

As we will demonstrate, these estimates are essential for constructing our strategic asset allocation, which determines the optimal weight for each asset class to maximise the expected return for a given level of risk.

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( PDF - 1.4MB )

Deputy Global Chief Investment Officer,

BNP Paribas Wealth Management

Strategic-A

The long-term performance of your portfolio is mainly determined by the strategic allocation which, according to an American study by Hoernemann, Junkans and Zarate, represents more than 75% of the achieved performance. Depending on your performance and risk objectives, needs and projects, strategic allocation is the backbone of your portfolio. Our asset allocation experts are available to optimise your asset allocation based on your specific objectives.

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"Strategic-A is a powerful service which gives you a 360° view of your wealth by asset class. Strategic-A allows you to design the best strategic asset allocation for your wealth in line with your risk-return profile."

Sophie de La Chapelle

Global Head of Strategic Asset Allocation Advisory - UHNWI